My CBO Publications
These are CBO publications that I either authored, co-authored, or contributed to.
Working/Background Papers
Working/Background Papers
- Shinichi Nishiyama and Felix Reichling,"The Costs to Different Generations of Policies That Close the Fiscal Gap," CBO Working Paper 2015-10, December 2015.
- Congressional Budget Office, How CBO Analyzes the Effects of Changes in Federal Fiscal Policies on the Economy, Background Paper, November 2014.
- Congressional Budget Office, How the Supply of Labor Responds to Changes in Fiscal Policy, Background Paper,October 2012.
- Related Paper: Robert McClelland and Shannon Mok, A Review of Recent Research on Labor Supply Elasticities, Congressional Budget Office Working Paper 2012-12 (October 2012)
- Felix Reichling and Charles Whalen, Review of Estimates of the Frisch Elasticity of Labor Supply, Congressional Budget Office Working Paper 2012-13 (October 2012)
- Felix Reichling and Charles Whalen, Assessing the Short-Term Effects on Output of Changes in Federal Fiscal Policies, Congressional Budget Office Working Paper 2012-08 (May 2012)
- Supplemental Material: The full time path of CBO's demand multipliers [excel spreadsheet]
- New Version: The Fiscal Multiplier and Economic Policy Analysis in the United States, Congressional Budget Office Working Paper 2015-02 (February 2015)
Blog Posts
Blog Posts
- How CBO Analyzes the Economic Effects of Changes in Federal Subsidies for Education and Job Training, May 2017
- How Economic Changes Affect CBO’s Budget Projections, April 2017
Deficit Reduction
Deficit Reduction
- How Eliminating the Automatic Spending Reductions Specified by the Budget Control Act Would Affect the U.S. Economy in 2014, July 2013 (Letter to the Honorable Chris Van Hollen, Ranking Member of the House Budget Committee)
- Macroeconomic Effects of Alternative Budgetary Paths, February 2013
- Economic Effects of Policies Contributing to Fiscal Tightening in 2013, November 2012
- Economic Effects of Reducing the Fiscal Restraint That Is Scheduled to Occur in 2013, May 2012 (Analysis of the 2013 Fiscal Cliff)
- The Macroeconomic and Budgetary Effects of an Illustrative Policy for Reducing the Federal Budget Deficit, July 2011 (As requested by Senators Kent Conrad and Jeff Sessions, Chairman and Ranking Member of the Senate Budget Committee)
Labor Markets
Labor Markets
General
General
- The Effects of a Minimum-Wage Increase on Employment and Family Income, February 2014
- The Slow Recovery of the Labor Market, February 2014
Unemployment Insurance
Unemployment Insurance
- How Extending Certain Unemployment Benefits Would Affect Output and Employment in 2014, December 2013 (Letter to the Honorable Chris Van Hollen, Ranking Member of the House Budget Committee)
- Related Cost Estimate: H.R. 3546, Emergency Unemployment Compensation Extension Act of 2013, December 2013
- Unemployment Insurance in the Wake of the Recent Recession, November 2012
Immigration Policy
Immigration Policy
- The Economic Impact of S. 744, the Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act, June 2013
- Related Cost Estimate: S. 744, Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act, June 2013
- Related Blog Post: CBO Releases Two Analyses of the Senate’s Immigration Legislation, June 18, 2013
- How CBO Would Analyze the Economic Effects of Proposals to Make Major Changes in Immigration Policy, May 2013
Analyses of Budget Resolutions
Analyses of Budget Resolutions
- Budgetary and Economic Outcomes Under Paths for Federal Revenues and Noninterest Spending Specified by Chairman Enzi, September 2017
- Budgetary and Economic Outcomes Under Paths for Federal Revenues and Noninterest Spending Specified in the Conference Report on the 2016 Budget Resolution, April 2015
- Budgetary and Economic Outcomes Under Paths for Federal Revenues and Noninterest Spending Specified by Chairman Enzi, March 2015 (Senate)
- Budgetary and Economic Outcomes Under Paths for Federal Revenues and Noninterest Spending Specified by Chairman Price, March 2015 (House)
- Budgetary and Economic Outcomes Under Paths for Federal Revenues and Noninterest Spending Specified by Chairman Ryan, April 2014 (House)
- An Analysis of the President’s 2018 Budget, July 2017
- A Macroeconomic Analysis of the President’s 2017 Budget, June 2016
- Related: An Analysis of the President's 2017 Budget, March 2016
- A Macroeconomic Analysis of the President’s 2016 Budget, August 2015
- Related: An Analysis of the President's 2016 Budget, March 2015
- The Economic Impact of the President's 2015 Budget, July 2014
- Related: An Analysis of the President's 2015 Budget, April 2014
- The Economic Impact of the President's 2013 Budget, April 2012
- Related: An Analysis of the President's 2013 Budget, March 2012
- The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024, February 2014
- The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023, February 2013
- The Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update, August 2012
- The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022, January 2012
- The Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update, August 2011
- The 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook, September 2013
- Related: Testimony on The 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook, September 26, 2013
Statutory Analysis of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (a.k.a. Quarterly ARRA Reports)
Statutory Analysis of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (a.k.a. Quarterly ARRA Reports)
- Estimated Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act on Employment and Economic Output
- in 2014, February 2015
- in 2013, February 2014
- from October 2012 Through December 2012, February 2013
- from July 2012 Through September 2012, November 2012
- from April 2012 Through June 2012, August 2012
- from January 2012 Through March 2012, May 2012
- In this report, CBO replaced the appendix to the ARRA report with this working paper: Felix Reichling and Charles Whalen, Assessing the Short-Term Effects on Output of Changes in Federal Fiscal Policies, Congressional Budget Office Working Paper 2012-08 (May 2012)
- from October 2011 Through December 2011, February 2012
- from July 2011 Through September 2011, November 2011
- In this report, CBO updated the low end of its range of multipliers from 1.0 to 0.5.
- from April 2011 Through June 2011, August 2011
- from January 2011 Through March 2011, May 2011
- from October 2010 Through December 2010, February 2011